San Francisco’s transit agency is making controversial budget cuts and scrambling for revenue, all to close a $320 million deficit. A new study sheds light on the role the pandemic and stalled recovery have played, and how much the city has regressed in its efforts to steer people away from cars.
Between 2019 and 2023, cars took a big share of downtown trips away from transit, bikes, and walking.
“There has been a complete change in behavior in how people are getting downtown,” said Sup. Myrna Melgar, who serves as chair of the SF County Transportation Authority. SFCTA staff presented the report at this week’s board meeting.
The report also underscores the connection between transit and a healthy economy in a dense city like San Francisco.
Many downtown workers now telecommute, leaving SF with a nation-leading rate of empty offices. But the report also notes that non-work visits are also down, a big reason why SF has tried to reinvigorate downtown with concerts and other events.
Before the pandemic, 43 percent of trips to, from, and around downtown were on bike and foot. Transit accounted for 28 percent, and cars only 25 percent. Then COVID hit and overall trips plunged — cut nearly in half — but cars saw the smallest drop. In 2023, 40 percent of trips were on bike and foot, 37 percent were in cars, and 21 percent on transit.
When only trips to or from other parts of SF or the Bay Area were counted, driving became the top mode of choice.
There are some caveats. First, the study is a draft. Second, it only surveyed SF and Bay Area residents about their activity on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday — no weekends. Third, it uses a generous definition of downtown. It’s not just the Financial District, but also South of Market, the Tenderloin, Chinatown, North Beach, Nob Hill, Russian Hill, and even Mission Bay.
But casting that broader net also helps SF understand who is traveling around town, why they’re coming to these neighborhoods (or not), and how they’re getting around. For example, the impact of visitors to Chinatown from other parts of town is crucial for that neighborhood’s recovery, one reason Chinatown merchants and others are doubling down on their night market.
While sales tax revenues in the rest of SF’s neighborhoods more or less returned to pre-COVID levels by 2023, downtown neighborhoods remained deeply in the red. Sales tax is only one piece of a complicated financial puzzle, but it’s a proxy for economic health. (City Hall is now projecting an $818 million deficit over the next two years.)
Return-to-work rates have been anemic, as often reported. But it’s not just a lack of trips to and from downtown that are hurting business. The SFCTA report shows that residents of these neighborhoods increased orders for grocery and other deliveries 57 percent, meaning less foot traffic and short transit trips.
The report paints a grim picture of both transit and the economy in this part of town. But seeing how it only captures data up through 2023, it also misses more recent developments. Some are positive, some are not.
Transit’s recovery, Waymo’s rise
Muni has shown recently that investments to speed up service attract more riders. Last fall, it reported weekday ridership at 75 percent of pre-pandemic levels, with a weekend ridership high of 92 percent. Overall, the biggest gains have been on lines between neighborhoods such as the 22-Fillmore, as well as “rapid” routes along Geary and Van Ness, where Muni created special lanes and infrastructure.
Recent big events have also helped. Muni broke service records one February weekend when Lunar New Year celebrations and NBA All-Star festivities were in town. On Saturday, Feb. 15, Muni riders made more than 400,000 trips, a 45,000-trip increase over a typical Saturday.
Caltrain is also poised to bring more people to SF from the Peninsula, especially if office workers return to South of Market and other downtown areas. The train operator went fully electric last September, giving it more reliable and frequent service. It had already seen a 41 percent ridership jump by December. BART, which just finished upgrading its train cars, saw a modest 6.5 percent gain in ridership in 2024.
Muni’s gains aren’t translating to more service downtown, however. In fact, it’s the opposite. To close a $50 million budget gap by July, the SFMTA board voted 4-3 to shorten five bus lines, keeping them from traveling down Market Street. Market is the main transit artery downtown, both on the surface with 11 Muni routes and below, where Muni trains run through one tunnel and BART through another.
The cuts mean some riders heading downtown from the Sunset, Haight, Mission, and Richmond might have to transfer to continue their trip. The board voted for the cuts instead of using $7 million from the agency’s reserves. (SFMTA also laid off 12 managers last month to avoid further service cuts this year.)
The shorter lines kick in on June 21. While Market Street will see fewer Muni buses, it might soon host more robotaxis.
Market forces
Waymo’s driverless cars are no longer an exotic anomaly, at least to locals. The company says it has 300 of its white Jaguars prowling SF streets.
In the name of “revitalization of downtown,” Mayor Lurie last month opened Market Street to robotaxi service, which means Waymo for now, but other services like Amazon’s Zoox could follow. Since 2019, Market Street has been off-limits to private vehicles, Uber, and Lyft – but not regular taxis. It’s possible Lurie’s decision will also open Market to ride-hail services.
(Waymo also has permission to “map” routes to SFO, a first step toward taking passengers.)
Regular taxis can already handle passengers on Market Street, as SF Bicycle Coalition advocacy director Claire Amable noted. “Getting picked up and dropped off along Market Street by Waymo and other cars won’t bring more people downtown,” she told The Frisc.
Some data back this up. Fewer people used taxi and ride hail services downtown post-COVID, according to SFCTA’s study. For downtown events like First Thursdays and summer concerts, Amable said the city should promote taxis and perhaps offer a bike valet – like the SF Giants and Chase Center do — to encourage other modes, along with Muni service.
Officials are also pressing for better service on routes adjacent to Market Street. Some, like the 41-Union and 10-Townsend, were suspended during the pandemic and haven’t returned. They used to ferry riders from South of Market across Market to neighborhoods due north. Sup. Danny Sauter, whose district includes Chinatown, North Beach, and the Financial District, said at Tuesday’s transit hearing that the state of downtown “could be some of our own making.”
“It’s clear how important transit is to downtown,” Sauter said, “and downtown to our budget.”