San Francisco’s biennial count of its homeless population — the best way to get some kind of handle on the number of people living on the streets, in cars, and in other makeshift circumstances — was already postponed one year by the pandemic.
Now it will likely wait another month.
During 2021’s winter pandemic surge, the count was cancelled and rescheduled for Jan. 27, 2022. Officials have used the time to revise the count for what they hope is a more accurate snapshot, with federal funding and local policy decisions at stake.
But San Francisco’s average COVID case rate is exploding, with more than 1,250 positive tests per day. The city’s workforce has been hit hard, with hundreds of employees in quarantine.
The federal agency that requires the biennial census has granted the city’s request to postpone the count until the end of February, The Frisc confirmed with Deborah Bouck, spokeswoman for the city’s Homelessness and Supportive Housing Department (HSH).
Department officials must also get permission for the one-month delay from a local oversight board, which is convening a special meeting tomorrow. (The board will likely grant the request.)
Higher expectations
The count, known as “point in time,” usually takes place over one night in January in odd-numbered years. It is required if cities want to receive federal funding to combat homelessness.
The census requires hundreds of people to spread out across the city to find and visually count everyone who is unsheltered — a process that sometimes requires people to come into close contact.
Last year’s count was cancelled across the U.S. This year, officials hope the surge of the highly-infectious Omicron variant will peak and soon recede as it has in other places.
Everyone concerned with homelessness in San Francisco is eager for the new count. It’s widely expected to be higher than the previous survey, from early 2019, which tallied 8,035 homeless people, including those living on the street, in city shelters, and in vehicles.
Even then, the numbers were questioned; the one-night snapshot, conducted in the middle of winter using hundreds of volunteers who might not know where to look, is an imperfect method for capturing a complex situation.
The stakes are even higher now. Since 2019, SF has experienced the upheaval of the pandemic, where economic tumult and other issues are likely to have forced many out of stable housing. City homelessness officials say the upcoming count will be more accurate. “We want to minimize the number of general volunteers that are recruited this year and maximize outreach workers,” said Sarah Locher, data and performance lead for HSH in a November oversight meeting.
Why it’s important
The numbers matter. The final tally determines how much federal homelessness money comes to San Francisco, and the underlying statistics — such as where people were living before they lost their homes — often guide city policies and spending decisions.
For instance, when the 2019 count showed more people living in vehicles, city officials created a temporary pilot program, converting a parking lot into a secure site for people in their cars. The pilot’s success encouraged officials to open a longer-term site at Candlestick Point and look for a second site on the city’s west side.
Capturing a more accurate count is crucial, said Locher, who explained in November that in previous years, the city’s homeless outreach team did 10 percent of the surveying work, with the other 90 percent falling to volunteers who might struggle to determine whom to consider homeless.
Chronicle columnist Caille Millner reflected on her own experience during the 2017 survey, noting that she and her fellow counters were all middle-class, housed people with little more than an hour of training to make life-and-death decisions. “Most of us aren’t experts. We’re just regular people, bringing our own prejudices about class and race to a crucial task,” Millner wrote.
In place of the general public, the department will look to city employees, outreach workers from service providers, and advocates who are more likely to know where to find people and how to identify them. It’s not yet clear how the ratio of trained workers to volunteers will change for this year’s count.
The one-night count is typically followed by a survey of more than 1,000 unhoused people, which generates crucial information about demographics (race, ethnicity, gender status), health issues including mental health and substance abuse, and more. In 2019, when asked what affected their housing and job stability, 42 percent of respondents cited alcohol and drug use, 39 percent said psychiatric and emotional conditions, and 31 percent noted chronic health problems.
This year, officials will add questions related to recent events, such as whether someone’s homelessness is the result of the pandemic or California’s wildfires.
Most years, the results of the count and survey are released in late spring, just before the city finalizes its annual budget. HSH spokeswoman Bouck said the probable postponement will not affect the timing of this year’s report.
The city is planning another point-in-time count in early 2023 to get back onto the biennial schedule.
Staff writer Kristi Coale writes about homelessness and more for The Frisc.