From the nation’s highest office to our local school and community college boards, San Franciscans have made a lot of choices.
The city has ousted Mayor London Breed in favor of a political neophyte, Levi’s heir Daniel Lurie. More than half the Board of Supervisors was up for grabs, and the new board, with one seat still undecided at this writing, seems more inclined to give Lurie’s agenda a boost.
That said, 2025 will be an unpredictable year, in part because President-elect Trump could well target SF, directly or indirectly, with his policies, politics, and funding decisions.
San Franciscans have also said yes to more car-free space, this time a two-mile stretch of the Great Highway along Ocean Beach. Prop K has passed, but not with the blessing of many Great Highway neighbors.
The city voted overwhelmingly to borrow more than $1 billion for school repairs and other infrastructure; it blessed a cautious promise of City Hall reform while rejecting a more aggressive version; and said no to more police perks.
Enthusiasm for a tax on Uber and Lyft to raise money for Muni didn’t go far enough, because Prop L needed more votes than a larger tax reform package, Prop M. It didn’t make it, and Muni won’t get the much-needed cash.
We’ll tally results on this page and plenty more.
Unsettled boards
Friday, 11/15, 4:20 pm: There are 9,600 ballots left to count citywide. Only 192 votes separate Chyanne Chen from runner-up Michael Lai in District 11, where a fraction of the city total are left to count for that race. No one has called it as of this writing.
There are also 298 votes separating Board of Education president Matt Alexander from John Jersin. If Jersin leapfrogs Alexander, who pulled ahead a few days ago, it would mean four new faces on the board. The new slate won’t be sworn in until January, about a month after the current board must make first steps toward big budget cuts.
For the fourth and final city college board seat, Luis Zamora has a 3,499-vote lead over fifth-place Ruth Ferguson. It would take a miraculous swing of votes to change that outcome. The Chron hasn’t called it for Zamora, but the Standard has.
Wednesday, 11/13, 7:30 am: Still more than 18,000 ballots to count. Last night’s drop was minimal and didn’t resolve the two outstanding races.
* Chyanne Chen remains about a percentage point ahead of Michael Lai in District 11.
* The sole Board of Education incumbent, Matt Alexander, remains ahead of John Jersin by a few hundred votes for the fourth and final seat. The winner will join newbies Jaime Huling, Parag Gupta, and Supryia Ray.
As we noted yesterday, it’s sometimes hard to know how a candidate’s statements and answers will translate into action once elected. San Francisco’s one-party rule means ideological differences along the Democrat spectrum are exacerbated for headline (or fundraising) effect.
It seems clear from our candidate interviews, plus observations of Ray and Alexander over the years, that the new school board acknowledges the many tasks at hand: fix the budget and central office administrative mess, speed up the frustrating pace of academic reforms, rebuild crumbling schools, and make tough choices about school closures down the road. Whether they, and a new superintendent and staff, can effect change within the demands of an election cycle or two is going to be a huge challenge.
SF voters gave them a lifeline in one regard: a decisive ‘yes’ (nearly 75 percent) for the $790 million facilities bond to repair school facilities. There was a ton of angst whether it would pass.
Odd, that: SF joined the national shift rightward in casting more than 15 percent of its ballots for Donald Trump, but votes for the school bond, another infrastructure bond (72 percent), and a confirmation of reproductive rights (83 percent) all passed handily. In a different year, would they have gained even more? That’s a speculative puzzle beyond this day’s analysis.
There were other signals that SF was not swayed in conservatism, big money, and right-wing bedevilment — all the bugaboos floated by some factions and candidates to raise funds or explain their failures.
The most conservative of the major mayoral candidates, Mark Farrell, got trounced, as did his pet proposition and the billionaire backing both of them. (Those ethics problems tying the two campaigns together certainly didn’t help.)
A measure to boost police recruitment with sweeter pensions failed.
And so-called progressives took supes seats in Districts 1, 7, and 9 — and possibly 11 if Chen prevails. (Note: In D7, incumbent Myrna Melgar doesn’t hew to all the so-called progressive lines, especially on housing.)
Monday, 11/11, 4:15 pm: About 24,700 ballots left to count.
The Board of Supervisors picture is coming into clearer focus. Connie Chan has prevailed in D1, Myrna Melgar is past the post in D7, and Bilal Mahmood’s upset of Dean Preston in D5 is now official. The only race left to call is in D11, where progressive-backed Chyanne Chen has pulled ahead by nearly a percentage point over Michael Lai.
So what will the new board be like? ‘Moderate vs progressive’ is too facile. On housing, assuming Mayor Breed appoints someone similar to Catherine Stefani in D2, the new board should tilt toward more density, which is what Lurie has promised. Mahmood will be more amenable to market-rate housing than Preston. Same with Danny Sauter in D3 instead of Aaron Peskin.
But Mahmood has also spoken out against sweeps of homeless encampments. And will the new board get behind Lurie’s promise to enact a “fentanyl state of emergency” — in whatever form that takes? As D10 Sup. Shamann Walton told Mission Local, “Some of the folks may get a label, but we don’t know how people are gonna vote until they actually get a seat.”
Extreme pressure in coming years — from a sluggish downtown recovery, painful budget decisions, or a vindictive Trump administration — could make so-called moderates and progressives vote in surprising ways.
* Board of Education update: Current board president Matt Alexander, the only incumbent running for re-election, has squeezed into the fourth and final spot, leapfrogging John Jersin. Only 218 votes separate them.
Monday, 11/11, 9:50 am: Despite 20,000-plus ballots still to tally, District 5 Sup. Dean Preston conceded last night to challenger Bilal Mahmood. In an Instagram post, Preston blamed the “seemingly unlimited” spending of “right-wing pressure groups.”
Public records show that Preston in fact outraised Mahmood in direct contributions, roughly $600,000 to $500,000. A third-party PAC aligned against Preston (aka “Dump Dean”) raised an additional $297,000, mostly from high-profile tech executives including Garry Tan and Chris Larsen.
Preston teased “upcoming big plans” to be announced soon.
Great Highway Park and a school board squeaker
Sunday, 4:15 pm: With about 22,000 votes left to count, we have some resolution this weekend. But not for all races.
* Prop K, to ban cars permanently from the Great Highway, has passed. Opponents in the Sunset have vowed to take down their district supervisor Joel Engardio, who went all-in for the road’s transformation, when he’s up for reelection in 2026. Returns show the measure was unpopular on the west side. The next step is to raise money to turn the barricaded stretch of asphalt into a proper park.
Other props: Prop E, which might lead to some City Hall commission reforms, has passed, while Prop D, a more aggressive version of reform tied to failed mayoral candidate Mark Farrell, has flopped. What’s the difference? Glad you asked.
Prop F, which aimed to boost SFPD staffing and recruitment, has failed.
* Newcomers Jaime Huling and Parag Gupta will join the SFUSD Board of Education in January, with parent advocate Supryia Ray knocking on the door. But the fourth and final seat will come down to the wire. Tech veteran John Jersin leads current board president Matt Alexander by 99 votes.
* The makeup of the Board of Supervisors is still up in the air. D1 incumbent Connie Chan is pulling away from repeat challenger Marjan Philhour, with a 51.5 to 48.5 lead. But another incumbent, D5 Sup. Dean Preston, hasn’t made up much ground against challenger Bilal Mahmood, who is ahead 52.7 to 47.3.
In D7, incumbent Myrna Melgar is hanging on to a slim lead over Matt Boschetto (52.7 to 47.3), and in D11, Chyanne Chen has inched ahead of Michael Lai (50.6 to 49.4).
With acknowledgments that “progressive” and “moderate” labels are often misleading, the obvious shifts if current standings hold will put moderates in two formerly progressive seats: Mahmood over Preston in D5, and Danny Sauter, who has won D3, taking Aaron Peskin’s long-time spot.
Supes still murky
Friday, 4:15 pm: About 289,000 voters, or 55 percent of registered voters, have been counted. The Elections folks say there are about 117,000 ballots still to count.
Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie gave his first speech today, saying he might not take a salary. He also promised public safety would be his top priority, including a “fentanyl state of emergency” on day one of his administration.
Here are the the latest vote tallies, with the next drop coming Saturday at 4 pm:
Board of Supervisors
- D1: Connie Chan has inched ahead of Marjan Philhour, 50.5 to 49.5.
- D3: Danny Sauter has won the seat. Runner-up Sharon Lai conceded late Friday afternoon.
- D5: Bilal Mahmood leads Sup. Dean Preston, 53.2 to 46.8.
- D7: Myrna Melgar leads Matt Boschetto, 52.8 to 47.2.
- D9: Jackie Fielder has won the seat.
- D11: Michael Lai remains less than a percentage point ahead of Chyanne Chen.
Local measures
- Prop B: The Chron has called a victory.
- The Chron has called a loss for Prop D.
- Prop F remains behind with only 46.2% of the vote.
- Prop K has gained slightly, now with 54.2% of the vote
- Prop L has passed, but it will almost certainly be nullified because it won’t top the vote tally of Prop M.
- Everything else has won (Props A, C, G, I, J, M, O) or remains above 50%.
Board of Education
The Chron has called victory for Jaime Huling and Parag Gupta. The race for the third and fourth seats continues.
Lurie’s board
Friday, 7:30 am: The Standard has called the D3 race for Danny Sauter. (The Chronicle has not.) If Sauter gets past the post, and other numbers hold up, here’s the board new mayor Daniel Lurie will have to work with:
- D1: Connie Chan or Marjan Philhour (literally tied!)
- D2: A moderate (Breed will appoint Catherine Stefani’s replacement next month)
- D3: Danny Sauter
- D4: Joel Engardio
- D5: Bilal Mahmood (currently 53%)
- D6: Matt Dorsey
- D7: Myrna Melgar (currently 52%)
- D8: Rafael Mandelman
- D9: Jackie Fielder
- D10: Shamann Walton
- D11: Michael Lai (currently 50.6%)
We dislike pigeonholing local officials (or anyone else) as “moderates” or “progressives,” as we’ve noted before. Someone reliably “moderate” on public safety and crime (Mandelman) can also be skittish about density.
But you can start sorting this list into some general factions. Let’s take housing, one of our favorite subjects: If Philhour wins, there will be a large majority of pro-density supervisors. The city needs to draw its new zoning map, with the supes’ approval, next year.
Lurie wins … supes shakeup?
Thursday, 4:15 pm: The Elections folks have now counted about 26,000 more ballots since late Tuesday. That puts us at 260,000 ballots, with 143,000 left to go.
It’s enough to put Daniel Lurie past the post, according to the Chronicle. He will be the city’s next mayor. London Breed has posted a gracious concession.
What’s next? Get a head start on Lurie’s housing agenda with the story we posted earlier today:
Here’s what else we know. It’s conventional wisdom that the later ballots counted tend to go progressive. If that’s true, some close supervisor races could tilt toward a few incumbents. D1 is straight-up tied. In D5, Sup. Dean Preston has some ground to make up. And in D7, Sup. Myrna Melgar is holding off a surprise challenger.
* Supervisors:
D9: The Chron has called the race for Democratic Socialist Jackie Fielder.
D1: Marjan Philhour and Connie Chan are tied. Not relatively. Not essentially. Literally:
D3: Danny Sauter has a comfortable 56 to 44 percent lead over Sharon Lai.
D5: Bilal Mahmood is up 53-47 over Preston.
D7: Myrna Melgar is up 52-48 over Matt Boschetto.
D11: Michael Lai is up by a percentage point over Chyanne Chen.
* Board of Education: The top choices — Jaime Huling, Parag Gupta, Supryia Ray, and John Jersin — remain in place. The Chronicle has called victory for Gupta. He joins Huling, who got past the post late Tuesday.
Incumbent Matt Alexander is a half-percent behind Jersin.
* SF measures: Props D and F remain underwater. In addition to calling the races for Props A, C, I, J, M, and O Tuesday night, the Chron has called victory today for Prop G (housing subsidies for low-income seniors) and Prop L (rideshare tax to fund Muni).
Everything else is ahead but too close to call.
- Prop B: A city infrastructure bond
- Prop E: City Hall commission reform
- Prop H: Retirement benefits for firefighters
- Prop K: Closing the Great Highway to vehicles
- Prop N: First responder benefits
Link-o-rama
Thursday, 2:30 pm: As we wait for the 4 pm ballot drop, here are a few links to election-related stories:
* Whoever becomes SF’s next mayor must work immediately to overcome hurdles to build more housing. (The Frisc)
* Billionaire Mike Moritz, who owns the SF Standard, also backed Mark Farrell and Prop. D with millions of dollars. It didn’t go well. (Mission Local)
* Will Trump’s vow of “retribution” extend to California and San Francisco? (The Chronicle) And if Lurie is elected, will he be ready for MAGA attacks? (Mission Local)
Statewide calls
Wednesday, 10 am: The AP, via CalMatters, has called four state ballot races:
- Prop 3 wins: Same-sex marriage is already legal in California, but voters approved a constitutional change that fortifies the law against potential setbacks, such as a U.S. Supreme Court reversal of its 2015 Obergefell decision.
- Prop 33 loses: There will be no local expansion of rent control. Voters rejected a third attempt to strike down the state’s Costa-Hawkins Act, which froze local rent control regulations when it took effect in the mid-1990s. State lawmakers can craft rent-control laws, however, and they expanded some in 2019.
- Prop 35 wins: Since 2009, California has raised billions of dollars a year by taxing managed healthcare providers. It can now earmark those funds for special Medi-Cal services, including primary and specialty care, emergency services, family planning, mental health, and prescription drugs.
- Prop 36 wins: Voters have reversed parts of 2014’s Prop 47, including the $950 threshold in merchandise value required to charge a felony for a third theft. Prosecutors, police, and retailers blamed the rule, which also applies to drug possession, for encouraging crime. Critics of Prop 36 said the rule was working to divert nonviolent offenders from prison.
A very quiet San Francisco
Wednesday, 6:45 am: Those of us able to sleep last night woke up to hear that Donald Trump had won enough swing states to secure his return to the White House. With more states to report, it could well be a landslide, meaning he’ll return claiming a huge mandate — on top of his campaign promises of retribution and alliances with people like Elon Musk and Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
San Francisco and other deep-blue pockets — yes, we’re still about as left-wing as it gets in this country — will again see themselves as a bastion of resistance. City attorney David Chiu, who won re-election handily last night, said this to reporters: “We were part of the legal resistance (during Trump’s first term) and, if the worst comes to be, we’ll be right there again.”
A very small batch of ballots was released after midnight last night. Nothing materially changed, but the SF Elections folks updated the ranked-choice scenarios.
Lurie is up 56 to 44 percent on Breed. If ranked-choice counting stopped right now, the supervisor victories would go to Philhour (D1), Sauter (D3), Mahmood (D5), Melgar (D7), Fielder (D9), and Lai (D11).
But counting continues as workers make their way through the remaining stack of votes. The next big batch is supposed to drop Thursday 4 pm.
Farrell… concedes?
Tuesday, 11:29 pm: Mark Farrell told supporters that early returns aren’t looking good, and he didn’t bother to rally the troops, according to a video that The Standard posted. That outlet called it a “sort of concession speech,” but the Chronicle didn’t mince words.
The third ballot drop
Tuesday, 11:07 pm: 234,000 ballots are now in the bag. That’s 44.6 percent of registered voters.
Before we get into the numbers, here’s what’s next: The SF Elections folks will drop a final batch of ballots at 1 am. It’s unclear how large it will be, but it’s highly unlikely that key unresolved races will see resolution tonight. Onward…
Board of Education: The top choices — Jaime Huling, Parag Gupta, Supryia Ray, and John Jersin — remain in place. The Chronicle has called victory for Huling.
Incumbent Matt Alexander is a few percentage points behind Jersin.
Mayor: Lurie remains ahead of Breed in first-place votes, 28.1 to 24.5 percent, with Peskin and Farrell trailing. There is no update on the ranked-choice scenario.
Supervisors: There has been almost no movement in the six supervisor races, unless you count Sup. Preston’s tiniest of leapfrogs over challenger Mahmood to take first place (based on first-place votes). They’re essentially tied.
State ballot measures: The only California propositions losing right now are the repeal of state rent-control limits, Prop 33, and a countermeasure, Prop 34, to punish the nonprofit that put Prop 33 on the ballot. (This is their third try.)
About Prop 33: The supes have a rent-control update queued up and ready to roll if Prop 33 passes. It would expand SF’s rent control law to include any multifamily homes built before 1994. The current law stops at 1979.
The second ballot drop
Tuesday, 10:05 pm: Mission Local has a map showing mayoral tallies for each candidate. While Lurie and Breed are winning precincts more widely across the city, Peskin love is packed into the Mission and the Haight, and Farrell is mostly carrying precincts in his District 2 home turf.
Tuesday, 10 pm: This drop only adds about 10,000 fresh ballots to the mix and very little change. One note: Prop L, the rideshare tax to fund Muni, must outpace Prop M’s vote tally to pass. Right now:
Prop L: 56%
Prop M: 70%
If the counting ended here, and ranked choice voting kicked in, Lurie would beat Breed 57 to 43 percent, thanks to a lot of second-place votes from Farrell supporters.
But wait! There are still something like 200,000 ballots to count, if turnout turns out like other presidential-year elections. We’re only about half way through.
A few calls from the Chron
Tuesday, 9:45 pm: The Chronicle is calling victory for:
- Prop A: $790m in facilities funding for SF’s beleaguered public schools
- Prop C: Giving the city controller inspector general powers
- Prop I: retirement benefits for nurses and 911 operators
- Prop J: guaranteed funding and oversight for children’s programs and school services
- Prop M: an overhaul of business taxes to benefit small businesses
- Prop O: affirming support for reproductive rights
- State Sen. Scott Wiener
- City Attorney David Chiu
- District Attorney Brooke Jenkins
- Sheriff Paul Miyamoto
- Treasurer Jose Cisneros
The first ballot drop
Tuesday, 9:15 pm: Amid news that Kamala Harris’s path to victory is growing narrower, San Francisco unveiled its first round of early results. These align with the mail-in ballot count, so consider these taking the temperature of folks who made up their minds earlier than most.
More than 197,000 ballots, or 37 percent of registered voters, have been counted.
Remember, everything here is early. We’ll stick to local races for this post.
Mayor: Daniel Lurie has the most first-place votes so far. Mayor London Breed, Sup. Aaron Peskin, and Mark Farrell are tightly bunched behind Lurie.
This is only first-place votes. Ranked choice doesn’t kick in until the fourth ballot drop.
Supervisors: In D1, incumbent Connie Chan has a slim lead over Marjan Philhour. In D3, Danny Sauter has a double-digit lead over Sharon Lai. D5 challenger Bilal Mahmood is just ahead of incumbent Dean Preston.
D7 incumbent Myrna Melgar is up by 9 points over Matt Boschetto. For the D9 open seat, Jackie Fielder has a lead over Trevor Chandler and Roberto Hernandez. In D11, another open seat, Michael Lai has a slim lead.
Board of Education: Supryia Ray sits above the cutoff with three candidates who campaigned together — Jaime Huling, Parag Gupta, and John Jersin. They allied with Matt Alexander, the only incumbent running, in a controversial move. Alexander sits just below.
Law and criminal justice: All three incumbents have large leads: City Attorney David Chiu, District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, and Sheriff Paul Miyamoto.
City College board: Heather McCarty, Aliya Chisti (not to be confused with D11 supervisor candidate Adlah Chisti), Alan Wong (the board’s current president), and Luis Zamora lead the pack.
Propositions: The short of it — nearly everything is ahead so far. Some are polling in the 50 percent range: Prop K (Great Highway), Prop L (a rideshare tax to fund Muni), Prop N (first responder student loans).
Two big bonds, Prop A (schools) and Prop B (city infrastructure) have more than 70 percent. A resolution for reproductive rights (Prop O) and steady funding for children’s programs (Prop J) are above 80 percent.
The dueling City Hall commission reform measures, D and E, are nearly mirror images, with 46 and 51 percent, respectively. The only other measure underwater so far is Prop F, a boost to police pensions and staffing.
Calm amid the storm
Tuesday, 7 pm: Far from watch parties or anxious voters, a didgeridoo player takes over the Golden Gate Park bandshell as the sun sets on Election Night. (Video by Kristi Coale)
Whip the vote
Tuesday, 5:40 pm: Nancy Pelosi, who knows a thing or two about counting votes, predicts her party will take back the House. At this writing, Harris and Trump are piling up the “reliable wins,” as CNN calls them. None of the seven swing states has tipped one way or the other.
Turnout Tuesday
Tues, 5:15 pm: How long could this take? For one scenario, let’s go back to the distant yesteryear of 2018. London Breed was running against a broad field but mainly two supervisors, Mark Leno and Jane Kim, in her first race.
It was a special election spurred first by the death of Ed Lee in late 2017, then machinations that included the supes ousting Breed from the interim mayor’s seat and temporarily installing Mark Farrell in January 2018.
Election Day was June 5. When the ranked choices kicked in, Breed fell behind Leno, then retook the lead — a slim one — for good on June 9.
It was the ninth round through the Department of Elections sorting hat. Leno conceded a few days later.
Tuesday, 4:50 pm: More than 197,000 ballots have been mailed in, and only a few hundred are in dispute. They represent 38 percent of the city’s more than 521,000 eligible voters.
Tuesday, 4:45 pm: At Mission Local yesterday, Joe Eskenazi broke down the reason we’re voting for mayor right now. Dean Preston’s measure in 2022 realigned the mayoral cycle, previously an odd-year thing, with the U.S. presidential cycle. Because, you know, turnout.
Mayor Breed called it a far-left power grab at the time. Eskenazi called (and still calls) B.S. on that. His argument: With more voters, you need more money to persuade them to lean your way.
And who’s got the money? Not the far left. (Or at least not as much.) Of course, money doesn’t hurt. But we’ve written about the money-equals-victory shibboleth before.
The pervasive rhetoric that voters can be bought by whoever spends gobs doesn’t add up. Even Mission Local has noted this. Here’s a riff from their coverage of the March 2024 election, in which the official SF Democratic Party committee was taken over by moderates:
Past moderate slates [in 2016 and 2020] were lavishly backed by tech money and old money and outspent opponents prodigiously — and failed dramatically.
Will Daniel Lurie, who has lavishly and prodigiously outspent his mayoral opponents (it’s not even close), win because of his bucks? Eskenazi notes other rich self-funded aspirants have fallen on their keisters, but then he gives Lurie back-handed credit for on-message discipline, that is, for not saying much over and over again.
There’s a third component to add to the mix: Ideas. As we noted a few weeks ago, the only main mayoral candidate whose housing ideas truly diverged from the others was Aaron Peskin. There’s overlap between the candidates in several other areas.
Money, discipline, ideas. They’re all in the mix. – Alex Lash
Pressure drop
Tuesday, 3:12 pm: As noted, our local polls close at 8pm. With ranked-choice voting for mayor and other races, and what’s likely to be massive turnout, don’t expect many final results tonight. Here’s the schedule from the Department of Elections:
* The first update comes tonight at 8:45pm, with two more to follow at 9:45pm and 10:45pm.
* There will be no result update Wednesday, only a report of the number of ballots left to count.
* The updates will continue Thursday at 4pm, with daily updates likely after that.
In 2022, a relatively light midterm year, at least two supes races, the DA race, the Board of Education final, and a key proposition remained undecided at the end of Tuesday night.
City Hall snaps
Tuesday 2:45 pm: There was no electioneering inside City Hall, to the supervisors’ credit. As final-hours voters line up out the front door, sign wavers have staked out spots across the street.
Tuesday 2:37 pm: The supervisors just sped through their weekly meeting in about half an hour, the fastest we’ve ever seen, so members running for office — more than half the board — can get out and shake those final hands.
Don’t forget your receipt
Tuesday, 12:50 pm: Usually SF voters typically get receipts in the form of little perforated tabs that tear off the top of ballots. This year, the receipt itself seems to be an homage to the ridiculously long ballot guide (300 pages) that we’ve all been sorting through.
